What Primaries in New York, Maryland, and Utah Tell Us About the Path Back to the Majority

The majority isn't won where everyone's watching — it's won in the suburbs and swing seats

By Joel Wanger, DMFI PAC Chief Political Officer

Last night's primary results — in Maryland, New York, and Utah — gave me one of the clearest data points yet this cycle on where Democrats will actually win back the House, and where pro-Israel candidates fit into that map. A few thoughts on what I saw.

The Headline: The Majority Isn’t Won Where Everyone’s Watching

It’s worth being honest about last night’s results - the energy around Mayor Mamdani backed Democratic Socialists of America primary challengers is real and influential. But let’s be clear: that momentum is clustered almost entirely in deep-blue strongholds — not in the swing and majority-maker districts that decide who controls the House. I don’t think winning in the leftmost areas of the leftmost districts in one of the leftmost cities in the country tells you much about winning the suburban and exurban seats where the majority actually lives.

And while I was unmistakably disappointed with some of the results last night, there were a number of bright spots in New York as well. Representatives Meng and Torres beat back insurgent anti-Israel challengers and in the district that’s home to one of the largest Jewish constituencies in the country, the candidate who ran against aid to Israel didn’t break 10% of the vote.

Outside the five boroughs, pro-Israel candidates kept winning convincingly — in Westchester, where Cait Conley won in a multi-candidate field that included an anti-Israel opponent, and on Long Island, where longtime pro-Israel incumbent Tom Suozzi won easily.

And if you zoom out further from New York, pro-Israel and mainstream Democrats had strong showings. In Maryland, a wide-open, two-dozen-candidate field to succeed Congressman Steny Hoyer produced a clear pro-Israel winner in Adrian Boafo by a wide margin, despite a crowded race and a notable amount of outside pressure. And in Utah, Ben McAdams, a moderate pro-Israel Democrat, cleared 50% of the vote outright in a multi-candidate field — in a district that was supposed to be considerably more liberal than the one he’d represented before.

Here’s the thing about House Majority math, and it’s something I’ve said before: it isn’t won in New York City or San Francisco. It’s won in places like San Diego and South Texas — and that’s exactly where pro-Israel Democrats had some of their best nights this cycle, nominating strong general-election candidates in competitive seats.

The Real Challenge: Safe Blue Seats Are Where the Fight Is Hardest

If there’s a genuine challenge in this data, it’s this: holding safe, urban, highly gentrified Democratic seats is getting harder, not easier, for incumbents who don’t engage early.

The lesson I take from the Members who took on serious primary challenges this cycle is pretty consistent: the ones who treated the threat seriously and early prevailed. Members who rebuilt their campaign and constituent operations from the ground up, and Members who invested heavily in voter contact for the better part of a year, were more successful.

When the unique dynamics of particular districts come into sharper focus only later in the cycle, the trajectory is tougher to overcome by election day. That’s the cautionary tale I take from this data: this isn’t 2007 anymore. You can’t simply ignore an insurgent anti-establishment candidate who has a zealous movement behind them — the threat can be neutralized, but it must be taken seriously.

The Pattern Holds

Add it all up, and the pattern I’ve tracked all cycle keeps repeating: pro-Israel Democrats win decisively when they take primary challenges seriously and early, build broad coalitions rather than narrow ones, and talk about the kitchen-table issues — affordability, economic anxiety — that are actually driving voters right now. Where that didn’t happen, races were close. Where it did, they weren’t.

That’s a big part of why I do this work. DMFI PAC is the only organization focused on both electing Democrats to the majority and making sure pro-Israel Democrats can win the primaries and general elections that determine whether that majority happens at all. Those aren’t two different jobs in my view. They’re the same job — and last night’s map proved it again, from safe urban seats to the suburban and swing districts that will ultimately decide who controls the House.

There are more of these races ahead this cycle, and last night sharpens exactly where I think we need to focus next. I’ll be back with the next slate of priority races in the coming days.

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